In the months following his passing in April 1994, former President Richard Nixon penned a letter to then-President Bill Clinton, providing what Clinton would later describe as “insightful advice, particularly concerning Russia.” The Clinton presidential library has recently declassified this letter, which, in retrospect, appears to have been remarkably prescient.
The letter, dated March 21, 1994, and analyzed by history professor Luke Nichter in the Wall Street Journal, contains Nixon’s candid evaluation of the political climate in Russia. Nixon accurately predicted the impending deterioration of relations between Moscow and Kyiv and the rise of a leader akin to Putin. Nixon, who was 81 then, composed the letter following a two-week visit to Russia and Ukraine.
Despite his infamous exit from the White House in 1974 due to the Watergate scandal, Nixon’s legacy includes his instrumental role in fostering détente with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. In 1972, Nixon made history as the first U.S. president to visit Moscow, where he signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty with Soviet General Secretary Leonid Brezhnev. Post-presidency, Nixon contributed to U.S. foreign policy, leveraging his extensive experience to guide the nation in the post-Cold War era.
In his letter, Nixon emphasized the importance of preserving political and economic freedom in Russia, describing it as “the most critical foreign policy issue the nation will confront for the remainder of this century.” He warned Clinton that the nascent democracy under former Russian President Boris Yeltsin was at risk.
Nixon expressed his concern about Yeltsin’s declining leadership, stating, “His drinking episodes are more prolonged, and his bouts of depression are more frequent. Most concerning, he can no longer fulfill his commitments to you and other Western leaders in an increasingly anti-American environment in the Duma and the country.”
Nixon predicted the dissolution of relations between Russia and Ukraine, describing the situation as “highly volatile.” He warned Clinton that if the situation spiraled out of control, it would dwarf the Bosnian conflict.
The former president advised Clinton to bolster American diplomatic representation in Kyiv, citing complaints from American businessmen about the embassy being “understaffed and inadequately led.” Nixon also encouraged Clinton to cultivate relationships with potential successors to Yeltsin.
Nixon cautioned Clinton against repeating the mistake made by President Bush in clinging too long to Gorbachev due to their close personal relationship. He also noted the rise of a nationalist and populist wave in Russia that could lead to a “credible candidate for president” — a prediction that materialized five years later with Putin’s ascension.
The letter also reveals Nixon’s disdain for career diplomats, advising Clinton to chart his path and not be constrained by his staff. He wrote, “Remember that foreign service officers rise to the top by avoiding trouble. Therefore, they are more interested in covering their own tracks than protecting yours.”
In later years, Clinton would recall Nixon’s advice with appreciation. “After he passed away, I often found myself wishing I could call President Nixon and ask his opinion on various issues, especially those involving Russia,” he said in 2013.y avoiding trouble. Therefore, they are more interested in covering their own tracks than protecting yours.”
In later years, Clinton would recall Nixon’s advice with appreciation. “After he passed away, I often found myself wishing I could call President Nixon and ask his opinion on various issues, especially those involving Russia,” he said in 2013.