Boston, Massachusetts – A recent study conducted by the School of Public Health and the University of Pennsylvania sheds light on the impact of COVID-19 on excess mortality rates from natural causes. The study reveals that many deaths attributed to natural causes were actually uncounted COVID-19 fatalities, providing crucial data to understand the true toll of the pandemic.
Official federal counts indicate that nearly 1,170,000 lives have been lost to COVID-19 in the United States. However, multiple excess mortality studies suggest that this number may be significantly underestimated. While excess mortality estimates deaths that may not have occurred under normal circumstances, there has been little evidence to determine if the SARS-CoV-2 virus contributed to these additional deaths.
Published in the journal PNAS, the study compared reported COVID-19 deaths to excess deaths from non-COVID natural causes, such as diseases and chronic illnesses. The findings show a correlation between increases in non-COVID excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths in most US counties, indicating that many uncounted deaths were likely due to COVID-19.
Lead author Andrew Stokes, an associate professor of global health, emphasized the importance of accurate death reporting during a pandemic. He noted that peaks in non-COVID excess deaths coinciding with reported COVID-19 deaths suggest missed cases due to low community awareness and insufficient testing.
The study’s analysis of 3,127 counties over 30 months revealed that 1.2 million excess natural-cause deaths occurred during the pandemic, with approximately 163,000 deaths not mentioning COVID-19 on death certificates. Geographic variations showed discrepancies in reporting, with non-metropolitan areas, the West, and the South reporting larger gaps between non-COVID excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths.
Researchers highlighted the implications of inaccurate death reporting on pandemic response and emphasized the need for resources to ensure accurate death investigations. The study aims to encourage further analysis of uncounted COVID-19 deaths and enhance public health interventions based on accurate data.
The findings debunked political assertions blaming COVID-19 vaccinations or shelter-in-place policies for pandemic mortality. Maria Glymour, chair and professor of epidemiology, stressed the importance of accurate information on causes of death for public health decision-making and honoring the memory of the deceased.
Overall, the study underscores the significance of accurate death reporting during epidemics and highlights the need for continued research to uncover uncounted COVID-19 deaths. Through diligent investigation and analysis, researchers aim to improve understanding of the pandemic’s toll and inform more effective mitigation efforts.