Philadelphia, Pennsylvania – Over 1.2 million deaths have been attributed to COVID-19 in the United States, with studies suggesting that the actual numbers might be higher. A recent study led by the University of Pennsylvania and Boston University sheds light on the extent of undercounted COVID-19 deaths, revealing that many of these excess deaths were likely uncounted COVID-19 fatalities. The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, compared reported COVID-19 deaths to excess deaths from non-COVID, natural causes and found a correlation between the two.
The research indicates that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic goes beyond what is estimated by COVID-19 deaths alone. Lead author Eugenio Paglino emphasized that if health care interruptions were the primary explanation for excess deaths, there would likely be a delay in these deaths following a peak in reported COVID-19 deaths. However, this pattern was not observed nationally, indicating that many COVID-19 deaths went unnoticed during the pandemic.
Analyzing data from 3,127 counties from March 2020 to August 2022, the researchers estimated that 1.2 million excess natural-cause deaths occurred in the United States, with around 163,000 of these deaths not attributed to COVID-19 on death certificates. The study revealed that the gap between non-COVID excess deaths and reported COVID-19 deaths was most significant in nonmetropolitan counties, the West, and the South. Unexpectedly, the second year of the pandemic saw nearly as many non-COVID excess deaths as the first year.
Geographical differences in death patterns were noted, with disparities possibly due to state policies, coding practices on death certificates, or political biases influencing COVID-19 reporting. The study emphasizes the importance of accurate death investigations for public health decision-making and the well-being of affected families. Researchers are now focused on understanding how the pandemic continues to impact U.S. death rates even after the acute phase has passed, aiming to shed light on uncounted COVID-19 deaths and excess natural-cause deaths.
The findings underscore the need for enhanced resources and commitment to ensure accurate death investigations, particularly in communities where COVID-19 deaths may have been underreported. The researchers hope that their work will prompt further analyses utilizing local data to differentiate between uncounted COVID-19 deaths, excess natural-cause deaths, and deaths from external causes.